Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CHAPALA-15
Off-shore
29 Oct 2015 06 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone CHAPALA-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (02 Nov 06:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 213 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 222 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      213 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 38000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 28 Oct 2015 18:00 194 --- 20 thousand Yemen
        Green 2 29 Oct 2015 00:00 194 --- 40 thousand Yemen
        Green 3 29 Oct 2015 06:00 213 --- 40 thousand Yemen

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 28 Oct 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, 64.7
          GREEN
          		 2 29 Oct 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.5, 64.2
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Oct 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.8, 63.8
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Oct 2015 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.3, 62.7
          GREEN
          		 3 30 Oct 2015 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 14.5, 61.6
          GREEN
          		 3 30 Oct 2015 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.6, 60.5
          GREEN
          		 3 31 Oct 2015 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.6, 59.3
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 4 213 no people 290000 people 14.8, 56.6 Oman
          GREEN
          		 3 02 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 2 167 38000 people 340000 people 15.5, 53.6 Yemen
          GREEN
          		 3 03 Nov 2015 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 16.7, 51 Yemen
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Yemen Al Mahrah

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Al Gaidah AAY 30 Civ. Paved No 8800

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Ras Fartak Yemen
          Nishtun YENIS Yemen
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Araft, Oman. This height is estimated for 02 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 29 Oct 2015 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          02 Nov 2015 06:00 Araft Oman  0.2
          02 Nov 2015 06:00 Mughsayl Oman  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 06:00 Nishtun Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 06:00 Tabut Yemen  0.1
          02 Nov 2015 06:00 Hayrut Yemen  0.1